Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 2.305586 2.689638 3.115479 3.622356 4.208979 4.866295 5.658504
2026-01-04 1.708168 2.221477 2.852133 3.682547 4.745946 6.060822 7.809161
2026-01-11 1.338162 1.903166 2.658274 3.738012 5.239074 7.248704 10.140464
2026-01-18 1.078228 1.654473 2.481430 3.749020 5.636976 8.338086 12.488933
2026-01-25 0.884813 1.451099 2.315919 3.724278 5.951130 9.325187 14.812255
2026-02-01 0.700089 1.219884 2.059855 3.504873 5.916386 9.763714 16.346564
2026-02-08 0.577332 1.063121 1.889532 3.383744 6.002049 10.378134 18.215719
2026-02-15 0.495733 0.960487 1.789330 3.357857 6.231703 11.242773 20.598304
2026-02-22 0.451019 0.915669 1.780995 3.488359 6.746526 12.651170 24.099083
2026-03-01 0.393531 0.835793 1.694468 3.458011 6.957205 13.536812 26.761146
2026-03-08 0.342125 0.758660 1.600239 3.396045 7.093941 14.294843 29.270444
2026-03-15 0.304439 0.703297 1.540121 3.391487 7.339514 15.284848 32.346964
2026-03-22 0.293419 0.705745 1.603517 3.661487 8.203161 17.642312 38.556920
2026-03-29 0.266218 0.667291 1.574259 3.729888 8.655835 19.233665 43.426561
2026-04-05 0.241643 0.630516 1.542854 3.788685 9.096881 20.861032 48.603021
2026-04-12 0.217207 0.589460 1.494748 3.800746 9.432969 22.303500 53.567825
2026-04-19 0.193866 0.546719 1.435447 3.775982 9.677929 23.571833 58.305991
2026-04-26 0.163620 0.479839 1.305213 3.553716 9.409941 23.617057 60.180128
2026-05-03 0.142368 0.433435 1.219467 3.430980 9.370780 24.197924 63.421174
2026-05-10 0.127987 0.403786 1.173075 3.404753 9.575896 25.401946 68.369588
2026-05-17 0.121306 0.395600 1.184021 3.537028 10.221472 27.796698 76.671057
2026-05-24 0.109467 0.369335 1.139634 3.506271 10.417110 29.055466 82.167227
2026-05-31 0.097966 0.341853 1.087123 3.443464 10.513592 30.064764 87.131248